Are Goal Trackers Really 3.2× More Successful Than the Average American?

On the ClarityGoals homepage, we claim that goal trackers are 3.2× more successful than the average U.S. adult.

That sounds like marketing fluff.

This article is where we show the math.

We're not going to use the fake “Harvard 3%” myth or any of the urban‑legend goal stats.

We're going to stack three actual studies, make our assumptions explicit, and show you how we get to that 3.2× number.

What We Mean by “Successful”

In this article, “successful” means:

Your ability to achieve a specific, pre‑defined outcome.

Not “rich by accident,” not “things kind of went okay,” and not “vibes are good.”

If you say, “I’m going to hit this goal,” and then you hit that goal (or get meaningfully close), that counts as success.

That matters for one key reason: if you never define a goal, you can’t meaningfully say whether you hit it. So for people with no clear goals, their chance of “hitting their goals” (plural) is effectively 0% in this framework—because there is no target to hit.

The Data We’re Standing On

The 3.2× claim comes from combining:

1. How many people actually set goals– Marist Poll (2019): 42% of Americans said they are making a New Year’s resolution for 2020. Marist Poll

2. How people say they’ll handle their goals (write / plan / track)– Gallup (2023):

   • 70% of U.S. adults said they’re very or somewhat likely to set specific goals for the new year.

   • Among those goal‑setters:

     • 48% said they will write their goals down.

     • 49% said they will create an action plan.

     • 95% said they will keep focusing on those goals throughout the year.

   • Gallup clusters goal‑setters into:

     • 32% “diligent planners” – write, plan, and keep focusing.

     • 34% “wing it” – no writing, no action plan, but they’ll “focus.”

     • 15% “memorizers” – action plan + focus, but no writing.

     • 13% “generalists” – write and focus, no action plan. Gallup.com

3. How likely different behaviors are to actually hit a goal– Dr. Gail Matthews’ goal study, summarized by Dr. Mary Mkandawire (Dominican University of California):

   • Participants were randomly assigned to five groups for a 4‑week goal:

     • Group 1 – think about goals, don’t write anything down.

     • Group 2 – write goals.

     • Group 3 – write goals + action commitments.

     • Group 4 – write goals + actions + share with a friend.

     • Group 5 – write goals + actions + weekly progress reports to a friend. Amazon Web Services, Inc.

   • Results:

     • Group 1 (unwritten): 43% of goals accomplished.

     • Group 2 (written, no action plan): 61% accomplished.

     • Group 3 (written + actions): 51%.

     • Group 4 (written + actions + share once): 64%.

     • Group 5 (written + actions + weekly progress): 76% accomplished. Amazon Web Services, Inc.

Those are the raw ingredients.

Now we bake.

Step 1: How Many People Actually Have Goals, Write Them, and Track Them?

Gallup asks about intentions (“How likely are you to set goals?”). Marist measures behavior (“Are you making a resolution this year?”).

• Gallup: 70% say they’re likely to set goals for the new year. Gallup.com

• Marist: 42% actually say they are making resolutions. Marist Poll

So, very roughly:

Only about 60% of the people who intend to set goals actually do it (42 ÷ 70 ≈ 0.6), which implies a 40% drop‑off from intention to action.

To keep things simple and transparent, we apply that same drop‑off to the “I’ll write them down” and “I’ll track them” numbers from Gallup.

When you combine:

• Gallup’s breakdown of how goal‑setters say they’ll manage their goals, with

• Marist’s reality check on how many actually follow through,

…you get a modeled breakdown of the U.S. adult population that looks like this:

• ≈58% – No clear, explicit yearly goals at all

• ≈22% – Have clear goals, but don’t write them down

• ≈7% – Write their goals, but don’t really track them

• ≈13% – Have goals, write them, and track them (some form of plan + ongoing review)

These percentages are approximations, not sacred numbers—but they’re grounded in the best large‑scale data we have.

Now: what are the odds each of these groups actually hits their goals?

Step 2: How Likely Each Group Is to Hit Their Goals

This is where Dr. Matthews’ experiment comes in. Using her groups as proxies:

1. No clear goals (58% of adults)

   • If you never define a goal, your chance of “achieving that specific goal” is 0%, because it doesn’t exist.

   • Yes, people still stumble into good outcomes, but that’s not what we’re measuring here.

2. Goals, but not written (22% of adults)

   • Closest match: Group 1 in Matthews’ study (unwritten goals).

   • Result: they accomplished 43% of their goals. Amazon Web Services, Inc.

   • So we model this group as having a 43% chance of hitting a stated goal.

3. Goals written, but not tracked (7% of adults)

   • Closest match: Group 2 – people who wrote their goals down but didn’t build in action tracking or extra accountability.

   • Result: they accomplished 61% of their goals. Amazon Web Services, Inc.

   • So we model this group as having a 61% chance of hitting a stated goal.

4. Goals written and tracked (13% of adults)

   • Closest match: Group 5 – people who wrote goals, wrote actions, and sent weekly progress reports to a friend.

   • Result: they accomplished 76% of their goals. Amazon Web Services, Inc.

   • This is basically what we mean by a “goal tracker” in the ClarityGoals sense: written goals, concrete actions, and regular check‑ins.

So, mapped to the four buckets:

58% – No goal → 0% chance (for that non‑existent goal)

22% – Goal, not written → ≈43% chance

7% – Written, not tracked → ≈61% chance

13% – Written + tracked → ≈76% chance

Now let's use those stats to get to that "3.2×" number.

Step 3: What’s the “Average American” Success Rate?

If you pick a random U.S. adult out of a hat and ask:

“What are the odds this person actually hits their goal?”

…we can estimate that by weighing each group’s success rate by how common that group is.

Using the four buckets:

• 58% of people → 0% success

• 22% of people → 43% success

• 7% of people → 61% success

• 13% of people → 76% success

Do the math:

• (58 × 0)

• (22 × 43)

• (7 × 61)

• (13 × 76)

• all divided by 100.

Step by step:

• 22 × 43 = 946 → 9.46

• 7 × 61 = 427 → 4.27

• 13 × 76 = 988 → 9.88

Add them: 9.46 + 4.27 + 9.88 = 23.61

So the average probability that a random U.S. adult hits a stated yearly goal is:

≈23.61%, which we can round to ~24%.

In other words:

The average person has about a 1 in 4 shot at "success".

Step 4: What About a “Goal Tracker”?

Now look at our goal tracker group—the 13% who:

• Have clear goals

• Write them down

• Plan actions

• Track progress regularly

Their success probability is:

76% (from Group 5 in the Matthews study).

So:

• Average adult: ~23.61% chance of hitting a goal

• Goal tracker: 76% chance of hitting a goal

Divide one by the other:

76 ÷ 23.61 ≈ 3.2

That’s the backbone of the claim:

A person who consistently writes and tracks their goals is about 3.2× more likely to hit those goals than the average U.S. adult.

This is not “magic journal woo.” It’s literally the math of:

• How many people set goals

• What they actually do with those goals

• And how those behaviors perform in a controlled study

Assumptions and Caveats (a.k.a. Why This Still Holds Up)

To keep this honest, here’s where we’re making reasonable leaps:

1. New Year’s goals as a proxy for “goals in general.”

   1. We’re using New Year’s resolutions because they’re the most consistently measured, large‑sample “people set goals” data we have. It’s not perfect, but it’s better than vibes. Marist Poll+1

2. Intention → action fall‑off.

   1. We assume the ~40% drop‑off between “I’ll set goals” (Gallup, 70%) and “I did set goals” (Marist, 42%) also applies to writing and tracking behaviors. That’s an approximation, but it’s grounded in actual numbers, not guesses. Marist Poll+1

3. Short‑term study, long‑term implication.

   1. Matthews’ study ran over four weeks, not a full year. Real‑world long‑term success rates are probably lower across the board—but the relative difference between “no tracking” and “consistent tracking” is likely similar or even bigger. Amazon Web Services, Inc.

4. We’re defining success narrowly and deliberately.

   1. If you never define a goal, you might still have good things happen. That’s not what we’re measuring. We’re asking:

      “When you say you’re going to do something, what are the odds you actually do it?”

Even with those caveats, the shape of the data is hard to argue with:

• Most people don’t set clear, written, trackable goals.

• The minority who do are dramatically more likely to hit them.

• Combining big national surveys with a randomized experiment gives us a plausible, defensible number: 3.2×.

So What Do We Do With This?

If you strip out all the charts and footnotes, you get one blunt takeaway:

If you want to more than TRIPLE your odds of hitting your goals, write them down and track them.

That’s what ClarityGoals exists for: to make it easy to live in that 13% group instead of the “eh, I’ll wing it” 58–80% group.

Do you want to more than triple your success rate in life?

Literally just track your goals, lol.

Sources

1. Marist College Institute for Public Opinion (2019).Health & Fitness Top New Year’s Resolutions… Americans Who Kept Resolution at Highest Point.https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Marist-Poll_New-Years-Resolutions_Written-Summary-of-Findings_1912201400.pdf Marist Poll

2. Saad, Lydia (2023).“Seven in 10 Americans Likely to Set Goals for 2023.” Gallup News, Jan 5, 2023.https://news.gallup.com/poll/467696/seven-americans-likely-set-goals-2023.aspx Gallup.com

3. Mkandawire, Mary (2022).Reach Your Goals in 2023: A Proven Research-Based Approach. Summary of Dr. Gail Matthews’ study at Dominican University of California.https://s3.amazonaws.com/kajabi-storefronts-production/sites/55766/images/TZU45oZESmCEUXBDnVKR_Reach_Your_Goals_In_2023_Report_Dr_Mary_Mkandawire.pdf Amazon Web Services, Inc.